Also in this newsletter: European Commission trade chief turned down new department role for teaching post
High rate of winning wagers likely to add to concerns that sensitive information can leak on prediction markets
Prosecutors allege Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified information about mission to seize Venezuelan leader
Boss of $12tn asset manager echoes criticism of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi
Users of weather forum say Paris temperature data may have been manipulated for wagers on prediction market platform
Fights over regulation could reshape the US federal system of government
As new bettors flock to platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, some make easy prey for trading firms and professional gamblers
Ultra-short-term contracts have surged in popularity as cryptocurrencies have fallen from recent peaks
FT analysis identifies 12 accounts on platform that made large well-timed wagers just ahead of start of conflict
When it comes to forecasting Fed rate decisions, the answer is narrowly ‘yes’
DraftKings and Flutter shares slide as investors fret about threat posed by apps such as Kalshi
Civilian and reservist charged with security offences, bribery and obstructing justice after ‘red line’ crossed with online gambling
What could possibly go wrong
More wagers will draw even greater attention to a market already under regulatory scrutiny
Betting against the Second Coming or buying US Treasuries?
Punters are poring over platforms such as Polymarket looking for suspicious bets
Insider bets, low liquidity and regulatory gaps complicate efforts to turn wagers into financial tools
Prediction market providers strive to boost liquidity so they can take on gambling groups with multi-leg bets
Peeling back the layers of the ambiguously-regulated US prediction market
Big financial companies expand beyond traditional securities to arbitrage event contracts in sport and politics
Prediction market disputes US raid amounted to an invasion in fight over more than $10.5mn in wagers
Value of bets soars from $100mn to $13bn a month
They offer a troubling opportunity to manipulate public perceptions of the outcome of political events
María Corina Machado’s odds surged on online betting site hours before official announcement
Intercontinental Exchange will distribute ‘event-driven data’ of site, which became popular during 2024 US election
