Has Nigel Farage’s UK Reform party peaked in the polls?

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Few doubt that Reform UK is going to do exceptionally well at Welsh, Scottish, and English local council elections on May the 7th. In the vast majority of these places the party is coming from an absolute standing start, including here in Barnsley, close to Sheffield, a working-class seat that famously houses the National Union of Mineworkers and has been part of Labour's heartland. And it's where Nigel Farage came recently to give his keynote election speech.

I think Barnsley has a very strong sense of identity. Barnsley knows what it is, and maybe that family, community, country message that we push just seems to resonate.

Pollsters and academics think that across England, Reform could win between 1,500 and 2,000 of the roughly 5,000 council seats up for grabs and win control of many more councils.

Are we going to win in Barnsley?

I will be a little bit more cautious but say I think we've got every chance. Thank you very much indeed.

But the questions that pundits and people around the party are wondering is whether Nigel Farage's anti-immigration start-up has peaked. The millions of pounds in backing from billionaires like crypto investor Christopher Harborne mean Reform's been able to set up hundreds of party offices and recruit thousands of candidates and campaigners.

Farage says that £5mn given by Harborne ahead of the 2024 general election has also been funding his round-the-clock security.

Our fundraising has gone pretty well, and we're throwing the kitchen sink at it. And I always just keep playing double or quits and keep going. So we are putting a lot into this, yeah.

And how much of the war chest that you've built up from Christopher Harborne and others will be left over at the end?

Less than the accounts department would like.

OK.

No, we're throwing everything at it.

Yeah.

We're throwing everything at it. I mean, I genuinely believe that these elections on the 7th of May are the single most important electoral test between now and the next general election.

In the village pub opposite the Reform event Farage has his supporters, like Lee Johnston.

I think they're straight-talking. I hope that I can believe that what they say, they will do, whereas we've been let down in the past by other parties who've said a lot of things and basically done nothing.

I think Nigel's a good speaker. He says a lot of things about where money's spent in this country, that people who are working... myself, I've always worked and see some of... well, I perceive that a lot of my money is being spent in areas that I don't think are deserving.

Down the road in Barnsley's market, Alan Lucas, who works with people suffering from drug addiction, agrees.

What I'm getting to feel now is I don't even recognise anyone, you know what I mean? A lot of people speak a foreign language. Things are just changing so much, and we just can't keep up with it.

And Reform, yeah, they say they're going to change a lot of things with taxes and, obviously, with all these people who are coming over on boats. So, yeah, I believe to give them a chance.

But some still question if there is enough of a party with talent and experience behind Nigel Farage, or whether it is essentially just a one-man band.

To find nearly 5,000 people to stand when the party's only really two years old was, I mean, honestly, it was a massive effort. The only areas we found tough are some of the inner London boroughs. And then you've got to try and vet them and stop people from standing who shouldn't be there. And we've had one or two embarrassments, but far less than the others.

We as a party had nightmares with this in the 2024 general election, I mean, absolute nightmares. I mean, there were days when I was just burying my head in my hands. I just couldn't believe some of the people that we had. That's not happened this time.

Local Reform candidates, like Philip Booth, are naturally optimistic. But he says much of it is down to Farage.

He says what people think. And when you get people that ask, as soon as you say I'm from Reform, they want to talk to you for, like, half an hour or more.

What's the biggest reservation that you're hearing about Reform?

The biggest reservation, I feel, is policy. They're very much - we don't know what they stand for. Who are Reform?

In Barnsley, a major target for Reform, support is not unanimous. Former Labour voter Thomas Bevan thinks a vote for Reform would be a backward step. He'll be voting for the Greens, but votes like that could split the progressive bloc and allow Reform to come through the middle.

It just feels like we've gone back in time and we're having the same political discussions again and again. And it's about immigrants. And these people are being blamed for problems that I think is coming from the top. And I think with everything going on in America, that's one of the mistakes Farage has made is cozying up to Donald Trump.

And I think the whole world is looking at that. It's a similar sort of movement, and I think, hopefully, over the next few years people will wisen up to his tactics, and there's just no actual substance behind them as a party.

Even Reform supporters are uncertain.

You think, have they peaked too early, really, because six months ago it looked like they were really dead certain to win. I'm not sure now. But, again, until people actually cast their vote I take it all with a pinch of salt.

Farage admits the poll bounce from last year's elections has started to fade. But he's still positive.

I mean, if you look at where we were exactly this time last year as we headed into the May the 1st elections, we got a result last year that even I couldn't believe. And we're back a bit from those peaks, but we're not back very much. We're not back very much. And you know markets don't always move in straight lines. And we still have led the last 275 opinion polls.

So there was a huge amount of energy and positivity from the candidates and councillors we spoke to today, and, of course, the trademark bombast from Nigel Farage, the leader himself. But there are huge hurdles ahead for the party if it wants to maintain momentum in the months and years leading up to the next general election.